Scotland’s Budget: Progress, pressures and the cost of standing still

This blog post is the second in our Budget 2025-26 series, focusing on a comparative analysis with Budget 24-25 by Dr Alison Hosie, Research Officer at the Scottish Human Rights Commission.

Scotland’s 2025-26 budget arrives amid rising inflation, growing living costs, and persistent inequalities. While headline figures reflect bold commitments—such as record investments in health and net-zero goals—a closer look at changes since Budget 2024-25 reveals critical gaps and a risk of stagnation in key areas of social support. For a government committed to human rights, this budget represents both progress and missed opportunities.

Progress and persistent gaps

The health sector stands out, with a record-breaking allocation offering potential to address backlogs and expand mental health services. Yet, as our research highlights, access in remote and rural areas remains uneven, with persistent challenges for unpaid carers, ethnic minorities, and people with disabilities. Similarly, mental health care in detention facilities is critically underfunded, perpetuating systemic inequalities.

Housing tells a more concerning story. A real-term funding cut leaves Scotland struggling to meet demand for affordable housing, particularly in rural areas where rising costs and limited supply exacerbate inequalities. Marginalised groups, including women-led households and ethnic minorities, bear the brunt of these challenges, while conditions in detention facilities continue to fall short of basic human rights standards.

Inflation further squeezes allocations, with real-term cuts in education and justice sectors. Rural schools struggle with teacher shortages, while limited transport and infrastructure entrench barriers for students in remote areas. Similarly, systemic barriers in the justice system—such as court delays and limited legal aid—disproportionately affect vulnerable groups.

Geographic inequalities and climate challenges

Geographic disparities persist, leaving rural and island communities behind. Limited transport connectivity, outdated heating systems, and poor broadband access increase isolation. Women and people with disabilities are disproportionately affected, as they rely more on public transport and accessible infrastructure. Meanwhile, climate and energy investments align with net-zero goals but fail to fully address rural energy poverty and substandard housing.

Local council funding offers little relief. Real-term increases barely keep pace with rising costs, limiting councils’ ability to deliver essential services. Rural authorities face higher delivery costs and smaller tax bases, deepening inequalities between urban and rural areas.

A rights-based approach that falls short

Scotland’s human rights commitments demand transformative action, not incremental progress. Yet, this budget reveals persistent gaps:

  • Social Security: Inflation erodes the impact of benefits, leaving women, ethnic minorities, and people with disabilities at greater risk.
  • Housing: Real-term cuts undermine efforts to address homelessness and affordability.
  • Education: Stagnant funding widens the attainment gap for rural and students with disabilities.
  • Justice: Minimal progress on court backlogs and legal aid expansion leaves vulnerable groups without adequate support.

What needs to change

To deliver on its promises, Scotland must:

  • Adjust for Inflation: Ensure real-term increases for housing, social security, and education, with explicit support for rural and marginalised groups.
  • Address Geographic Disparities: Invest in rural transport, broadband, and energy efficiency to bridge the urban-rural divide.
  • Strengthen Justice Systems: Expand legal aid, reduce court backlogs, and enhance victim support, particularly in remote areas.
  • Improve Detention Conditions: Prioritise funding to address overcrowding and ensure access to healthcare and rehabilitative services.

The road ahead

This year’s budget provides a foundation but fails to deliver the transformative action Scotland needs to uphold its human rights obligations. For those living in poverty, denied access to justice, or excluded from basic services, waiting another year isn’t an option. Bold policies must be matched with bold investments—Scotland’s most vulnerable deserve no less.

This is the second in our blog series called 'Rights at the Heart of Scotland’s Budget?' that offers more detailed analysis, including a comparative analysis with Budget 24-25, an explorative analysis of the Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement (EFSBS) through the lenses of human rights, the National Performance Framework and the Sustainable Development Goals, finishing with a summary human rights review of each budget portfolio.

Find out more about Human Rights Budgeting on the dedicated page on our website.