Scotland’s Budget and the National Performance Framework

This is the fourth blog in our Budget 2025-26 series by Dr Alison Hosie, Research Officer at the Scottish Human Rights Commission.

The timing of this blog is especially significant, as discussions surrounding a major overhaul of the the National Performance Framework (NPF) have gained traction. This moment presents an opportunity to strengthen the links between the NPF and budgetary processes, making them more actionable and impactful.

Scotland’s Budget needs to walk the talk on National Outcomes

Budgets are political documents, but they’re also moral ones. They tell us what governments care about and, more importantly, what they’re willing to act on. Scotland’s Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement (EFSBS) aims to link public spending with the National Performance Framework’s (NPF) ambitious outcomes, such as reducing poverty and achieving net-zero emissions. While there’s recognition of these goals in the EFSBS, the connection has often lacked clarity on how budget allocations will achieve real progress.

With an NPF overhaul on the horizon, the Scottish Government has an opportunity to address these gaps by ensuring that public spending is explicitly tied to measurable progress on national outcomes. The proposed reforms could enhance transparency, accountability, and alignment between the NPF and the EFSBS.

Where the Budget talks the talk

The EFSBS makes an effort to link budget allocations to NPF outcomes. Investments in mental health services are tied to improving well-being, while the Scottish Child Payment is central to tackling child poverty. Commitments to affordable housing and energy efficiency also support climate action and inequality reduction. These are more than rhetorical connections, reflecting the intent to use public spending for systemic change. However, beyond the surface, a key question remains: How will this funding translate into measurable improvements?

An updated NPF could provide the structure needed to answer this question by ensuring that outcomes are not only linked to spending but supported by clear milestones and robust data.

But does it walk the walk?

Despite its references to National Outcomes, the EFSBS struggles to demonstrate how outcomes will be delivered. For instance, the £768 million allocated to affordable housing is significant, but the statement lacks clarity on how it will reduce homelessness or improve living conditions. Similarly, while the Scottish Attainment Challenge targets educational inequalities, there are no milestones to measure whether the attainment gap is closing.

An NPF overhaul must address these gaps by requiring outcome-based budgeting and greater specificity in linking funding to tangible results. A dynamic, reformed NPF could also help navigate the interconnected nature of outcomes, ensuring that trade-offs are managed effectively.

Lessons from the human rights lens

Much like its human rights approach, the EFSBS lacks benchmarks and fails to recognise the interconnectedness of issues like poverty, housing, and health. Addressing poverty, for example, isn’t just about social security or housing—it requires examining access to childcare, transportation, and education. Siloed thinking within the budget undermines opportunities to tackle these challenges collaboratively.

The current NPF debate emphasises the need for a framework that not only acknowledges interconnectedness but actively supports it through integrated budgeting and policymaking. Reforming the NPF offers a chance to make these connections explicit.

What needs to change

For the EFSBS to truly support NPF outcomes, the Scottish Government must:

• Show Us the Outcomes: Move beyond describing funding to demonstrate measurable improvements, with milestones to track progress.
• Make the Connections: Recognise the overlap between portfolios and coordinate budgets for greater impact.
• Think Long Term: Link today’s spending decisions to Scotland’s long-term goals, such as eradicating child poverty by 2030 or achieving net-zero by 2045.
• Deepen the Data: Use disaggregated data to not only identify disparities but also measure how spending transforms outcomes for those most affected by inequality.

An NPF overhaul could serve as a catalyst for these changes, ensuring the framework becomes a dynamic and actionable tool.

Walking the talk on National Outcomes

Scotland’s National Performance Framework is a vision for a fairer, greener, and more prosperous country. The Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement is a tool to make that vision a reality. But as things stand, the connection between the two feels incomplete. Like the EFSBS’s approach to human rights, it’s a good start—but not yet good enough.

Budgets are about choices. And in Scotland, we have the tools to make better ones. By strengthening the links between budget allocations and outcomes, adopting a long-term perspective, and centring the most marginalised in its analysis, the EFSBS can become more than a report on planned spend—it can become a blueprint for what’s achieved. The question is whether we’re ready to close the gap between intention and impact—and truly walk the talk.

During the Finance and Public Administration Committee's debate on Wednesday 8th January 2025, Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, proposed "to start again" with every aspect of the NPF over the next year. Done well, this offers Scotland a chance to ensure that intention becomes action. By integrating reforms that enhance its alignment with budgetary processes, Scotland could build a framework that drives real progress, rooted in equity and human rights.

This is the fourth in our blog series called 'Rights at the Heart of Scotland’s Budget?' that explores the the Equality Fairer Scotland Budget Statement (EFSBS) through the lens of the National Performance Framework. Blogs 3 and 5 use the lenses of Human Rights and the Sustainable Development Goals. The series will finish with a summary human rights review of each budget portfolio.

Find out more about Human Rights Budgeting on the dedicated page on our website.